Obama as George McGovern?

Daniel Pipes goes out on a limb again with a prediction about the 2008 elections. Pipes is an expert on middle eastern affairs and American politics, and answered a question about Barack Obama’s chances this way:

He is the first far-leftist possibly to become the Democratic candidate for U.S. president since George McGovern succeeded at this in 1972. Should Obama be nominated, I expect he will do less badly than McGovern (who won just 17 out of 537 electoral college votes), but he will also do very badly.

Pipes’ article cites news articles that point out that Obama’s support comes from the same groups as McGovern’s did, college students and minorities. But both groups tend to burn hot with enthusiasm for a short time: by election day, many are no-shows.

I hope he’s right.