We naturally think a trend will continue indefinitely, as evidenced by the housing bubble that just burst and the natural tendency for sports fans to rally around a powerhouse rather than their more logical regional choice.

That tendency is no where more dangerous than in evaluating success or failure in conflicts:

In both Iraq, where al Qaeda in Iraq seems to be in deep trouble, and in Colombia, where the FARC is on the ropes, public statements by officials give hints of a premature sense of triumph.

This lesson is not lost on some, including a senior intelligence official who told the Washington Post:

“I think it would be premature at this point,” a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains “the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks.”

Farah continues the post at his regular blog here:

Giving these groups a respite in the confidence that they have been seriously wounded is a potentially-fatal mistake. They need to remain relevant, and will use their diminishing resources produce the most spectacular results. That is why it is imperative to continue the sometimes-boring but necessary systematic work of following up every lead and continuing the pressure as if our lives depend on it. Because they likely do.

There is also the political consideration; if in their dying gasp, AQ in Iraq stages a spectacular attack, the political left will hasten to abandon the entire effort because of “new” evidence that the tide has turned back against us. Or, the Republican administration could draw down troops too quickly, weakening our position, but strengthening the party’s chances in November. Either situation provides the path to failure, and we must resist them both.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Iraq, but less optimistic about America having the political will to fight its enemies. We may be willing to trade the 1960’s sentiment of “better red than dead” for appeasement to a coming Muslim world. Do burkas come in red, white and blue?